Google Search Growth: What’s Happening?

A new data report from Rand Fishkin at Sparktoro says Google Search has seen a 20%+ increase in searches yearly.

The research sought to answer two key questions:

1. Are AI tools taking market share away from Google?
2. Is Google Search growing, flatlining, or declining?

Based on the numbers—a 20+% YoY increase in searches—it looks like Google usage is growing. Sundar Pichai, Google’s CEO, even stated:

"Based on our testing, we are encouraged that we are seeing an increase in search usage among people who use the new AI overviews as well as increased user satisfaction with the results."

But is there actual data to support this claim?

AI Overviews and Search Engagement

Google’s internal assessments indicate that:

• Users report higher satisfaction when AI Overviews are present.
• Queries are becoming longer and more complex, meaning users might be engaging more deeply.
• Clicks from AI Overviews tend to be higher quality, with users spending more time on visited pages.

Sounds great, right? But here’s the catch: most of this data is internal. There’s little public transparency. Just because searches are increasing doesn’t necessarily mean users are satisfied.

The real questions we need to ask are:

• How many searches are “one-and-done” versus refined searches?
• How many users interact with AI-generated links?

The Rise of Zero-Click Searches

According to a July 2024 Sparktoro study:

• 21.4% of searches result in a second search (meaning users didn’t find what they needed the first time).
• Nearly 60% of searches on mobile and desktop in the US end with no click at all.

Why? Because Google is answering the questions directly on the SERP. If you get the answer right there, why click? This means:

• More searches ≠ More website traffic
• AI Overviews may be contributing to the increase in zero-click searches.

AI Overviews and Ads: The Real Play

A study by Advanced Web Ranking found that:

• On average, AI Overviews feature 7.2 links
• Google Ads appear in 28.3% of AI Overview-triggered searches (based on a sample size of 8,000 keywords)

What we don’t know: How many of these AI Overview links get clicked? But it’s safe to say that if the answer is clear in the AI Overview itself, there’s little incentive to click through.

Meanwhile, in October 2024, ads began appearing in AI overviews for mobile devices. These ads appear directly within AI-generated responses, making it even less likely users will click away to an external site.

This raises an important point: If Google is rolling out sponsored links within AI Overviews, despite ongoing discussions about whether users are clicking on them, it strongly suggests that people are clicking on these links in high volume. Google wouldn’t be shifting its entire search monetization model if it wasn’t profitable. They just haven’t released the data to prove it—yet.

The Bigger Picture: Google’s Shift Toward a Walled Garden

So, what’s the endgame? Keeping people on Google for as long as possible. Google is no longer just a search engine—it’s becoming a self-contained platform, much like Facebook or Twitter.

This shift didn’t happen overnight. A little history:

• 2019: Google declared a “Code Yellow” due to slowing search revenue growth.
• 2020: Prabhakar Raghavan, who led Google’s ads and commerce division, took over Search.
• Since then: More ads, more AI-generated answers, fewer outbound clicks.

In October 2024, Google made another leadership change—Nick Fox took over search, ads, geo, and commerce. And now Google is exploring ads in new AI Mode. Now, instead of just keeping users on Google, they’re directly monetizing AI-generated answers.

Final Thoughts

Yes, search volume is increasing, but:

• Zero-click searches are growing
• AI Overviews are reducing traffic to independent sites
• Google appears to be prioritizing strategies that keep users on its platform, which could contribute to higher ad revenue over time.

So when Google says search usage is up, the real question is: who benefits from that growth? Because it’s looking less like publishers, and more like Google itself.